Concentration of CO2 in the Atmosphere

Global Warming Has Accelerated

by James Hansen and Pushker Kharecha

Here we make available “Global Warming Has Accelerated,” including the Supplementary Material (SM), in one document and the webinar discussing the paper.

The SM shows that the rate of freshwater injection on the North Atlantic Ocean assumed in “Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise, and Superstorms” was realistic, averaged over the past two decades, but the rate of ice melt did not increase in the past decade. The present acceleration of global warming, which is especially great in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, makes it likely that the rate of ice melt will now accelerate, thus affecting the likelihood of shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and, in turn, the threat of large sea level rise.

The SM, see below, also addresses reactions to our paper. One more comment may be helpful. Why do we say that global temperature will not go down much (i.e., the world is already at +1.5°C and 2025 will be warmer than the kibitzers expect) is only partly due to the ship aerosol forcing – it is due more to high climate sensitivity. We evaluated the 1.7 W/m2 darkening of Earth as about 0.5 W/m2 ship aerosols, 0.15 W/m2 sea ice albedo, but mostly cloud feedback. The cloud feedback operates in both hemispheres and is the main reason that global SST will not fall much and will soon be rising further. The ship aerosol forcing and cloud feedback work together in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, so warming is fastest there, but warming is a global phenomenon.

We have been cooperating with David Beerling and colleagues for years on one the many things that eventually may help restore a propitious climate: actions to accelerate weathering removal of atmospheric CO2. A new paper on that is just published; we briefly discussed this once and will try to write more soon, but further information is available from the University of Sheffield.

Here are some comments from page 15 of SM:

Reactions to these papers. Given that our papers disagree with IPCC conclusions, it is not surprising that they generate reactions on social media. We generally have not responded, as it is very time consuming to respond and debate when we are outnumbered – it seems a better use of time to work on the next paper and include responses in it, if warranted, as we do here.

The first reaction was that there was no significant acceleration of global warming. This is an issue where it seems best to let others and the real world provide the response.

A second reaction was that, if there is acceleration, it is captured in the GCM simulations that IPCC employed, therefore accelerated global warming does not support our assertion that IPCC underestimated ship aerosol forcing. That reaction exposes the problem with lumping CMIP/IPCC model results into a model fog, and then treating that fog as if it is a probability distribution for the real world or even a sharp tool useful for climate analysis. The problem in this case is that many of the models in the fog did not use the IPCC aerosol forcing. For example, the fog includes GISS model runs that used Susanne Bauer’s aerosol modeling, with both her Matrix and OMA aerosol models;[1] the latter model has an even greater aerosol forcing change than the aerosol scenario that we employed. A subset of the model runs consisting of only those that use the IPCC aerosol forcing (not precursor emissions) would likely produce only a slight acceleration (due to growth of the annual GHG forcing in the past several years, which exceeds that in the prior two decades; see Fig. 15), much smaller than the observed acceleration of global warming.

A third reaction was that our estimate of high climate sensitivity is an outlier. However, many recent climate sensitivity studies include a key role for an “emergent constraint.” What is an emergent constraint, you may ask? The emergent constraint on climate sensitivity emerges from a desire to keep global warming similar to observations. Our present paper shows that there is a one-to-one relation between the trend of late 20thcentury aerosol forcing and the climate sensitivity required to match observed warming. Specifically, for the IPCC aerosol scenario, the climate sensitivity required to match observed warming is near 3°C for doubled CO2. If one accepts the IPCC aerosol scenario, the emergent constraint is that climate sensitivity cannot be far from 3°C for doubled CO2. Thus, given the one-to-one relation, the emergent constraint amounts to “if we assume that climate sensitivity is near 3°C for doubled CO2, we find that climate sensitivity is near 3°C for doubled CO2.” Not many people question the IPCC aerosol scenario, leading to a seeming consensus that sensitivity is near 3°C for doubled CO2. However, as we show in the paper, there are reasons to believe that the real-world aerosol forcing change exceeds IPCC’s estimate.

A fourth reaction, made in the New York Times and elsewhere, is that the current rapid warming falls within the range of all CMIP/IPCC climate simulations, so there is no good reason to believe that something is occurring outside of IPCC assumptions. This claim draws more attention to the big model range produced by CMIP/IPCC simulations and the assumption that it is a probability function for the real world. The problem is that the range is a combination of apples and oranges, as shown by the example above, but also of bananas and figs, because of a range of assumptions or treatments of different physical processes in the models – and, to be brutally honest, some pretty awful models. A scientist who wishes to help science writers understand the situation should do more than note that some model produces a response even more extreme than the real world; it would be more useful if the scientist looked at that model to see what caused the extreme response and assessed its plausibility.

[1] S.E. Bauer, K. Tsigaridis, G. Faluvegi et al., “Historical (1850-2014) aerosol evolution and role on climate forcing using the GISS ModelE2.1 contribution to CMIP6.” J. Adv. Model Earth Syst. 12(8) (2020): e2019MS001978

Local climate advocates host Northeast Regional Conference

Members of Citizens’ Climate Lobby (CCL) throughout New York and New England will be attending the Northeast Regional Conference in Schenectady, NY on April 4 & 5, 2025.

  • Where: Union College, Schenectady, NY
  • When: April 4-5, 2025
  • Who: Citizens’ Climate Lobby volunteers and all climate advocates
  • Cost: Early Bird: $85. After March 22: $100. Student: $25. (Scholarships available.)
  • Registration: https://bit.ly/cclneconf2025-register

The event will include a variety of lectures, panels and workshops to build climate advocacy skills and collaborate other volunteers. Approximately 200 volunteers are expected to register. Attendees will leave with a new understanding of subjects ranging from carbon pricing to regional energy policy and building political will.

“During a time of climate policy uncertainty, building bridges with other CCL volunteers and climate advocates has been a core part of my experience with Citizens’ Climate Lobby. I have learned so much from other people’s perspectives which have helped inform my local organizing efforts,” said Lily Maenza, Northeast Regional Climate Advocacy Fellow, who is helping to organize the event. Lily is from Brooklyn, NY and is currently a natural resources management student at the University of Vermont. She is a UVM CCL chapter member.

Among the sixteen conference sessions scheduled, specific topics include:

  • Battery Energy Storage Systems
  • Bridging the Partisan Divide
  • Building Decarbonization
  • Climate Advocacy on College Campuses
  • Climate Misinformation

Presenters include Gary Rucinski, a 2018 candidate for the Massachusetts US House of Representatives; Greg Sacco Sr, retired NYISO operator; Matthew Rolnick, analyst at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and Dr. Anne Banducci, Assistant Professor of Psychiatry at Boston University; among others.

In addition to advocating for a price on carbon, CCL was influential in getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed, a significant step towards achieving reductions in greenhouse gas pollution. Legislators appreciate CCL’s bi-partisan, solutions-based approach to lobbying. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has said of CCL, “You guys are the best. There is no better environmental group.” At the 2024 CCL National Fall Conference, Senator-elect John Curtis (R-UT) noted, “I can’t think of any group I’d rather speak with today.”

In addition to hosting events like these, local members of Citizens’ Climate Lobby regularly meet with US Senators and Representatives to urge them to support federal policy that will help reduce climate pollution.

Members of the media are welcome to attend the conference. Please contact David at cclneconf@gmail.com to make arrangements.

CONTACT:

David Ruekberg, CCL Northeast Conference Coordinator

cclneconf@gmail.com

585-789-1865

###

Citizens’ Climate Lobby is a national nonprofit organization with local chapters across the country. The group has been the primary catalyst for the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act. To learn more about our work, visit citizensclimatelobby.org.

 

February 7 Green Energy News

Headline News:

  • “Tesla Cybertruck Reservations Go Poof – Now Free Wraps For Q1 Orders” • Tesla is rolling out discounts to get people to buy a new Model 3 or Cybertruck. It seems a bit early in the quarter for Tesla to be doing this. It seems to indicate consumer demand challenges after the first year of decreasing sales since the Model S was launched in 2012. [CleanTechnica]

Tesla Cybertruck (Mr.choppers, CC-BY-SA 3.0)

  • “India Achieves Historic Milestone Of 100 GW Of Installed Solar Power Capacity” • India has achieved a historic milestone by surpassing 100 GW of installed solar power capacity, again showing its position as a global leader in renewable energy, according to the Union Minister of New and Renewable Energy, Pralhad Joshi. [The Statesman]
  • “CIP Starts Construction On 960-MWh Oz Battery Site” • CIP, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, is starting construction of its first large-scale battery energy storage site in Australia, the 240-MW, 960-MWh Summerfield project in the state of South Australia. It comes after a financial investment decision was taken in September 2024. [reNews]
  • “€20,000 Volkswagen Electric Car – The Next VW Beetle? ” • Not many cars are able to compare with the Volkswagen Beetle. It was special. Volkswagen may now be working on a 2020s Beetle, an electric one. The company is looking into a €20,000 super affordable EV, and it wrote about that in a news release on the matter. [CleanTechnica]
  • “How Nonprofit Change Reaction Gets Money To Households Impacted By Wildfires So Fast” • As Angelenos reel from the wildfires that destroyed thousands of homes and businesses and killed at least 29 people, an LA-based nonprofit is handing out cash payments of as much as $5,000 to provide fast, unrestricted help to some of those impacted. [ABC News]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.

February 6 Green Energy News

Headline News:

  • “Siemens Gamesa Secures Certificate For 21.5-MW Turbine” • Siemens Gamesa was granted a certificate to develop a prototype wind turbine with a capacity of 21.5 MW and a 276 meter rotor. The prototype structure has been certified by DNV and has until 2027 to develop the model, according to the Danish wind turbine certification authority. [reNews]

Wind turbine (Siemens Gamesa image)

  • “Earth Just Experienced Its Warmest January On Record” • Despite a record snowfall in the south, cold temperatures across the northeast and an emerging La Niña event, which is supposed to cool things down, January 2025 was still warmer than any previous start to the year in the organization’s dataset going back to 1940. [ABC News]
  • “Musk Plays President While Tesla Misses Electric Truck Boat” • Auto industry observers are wondering if Elon Musk still wants to sell Tesla EVs, now that he’s a Trump advisor. The company suffered a sales drop last year, and the Tesla Semi Class 8 electric truck is heading for stiff competition when it finally goes into full production in 2026. [CleanTechnica]
  • “500-MW New York PV Project Gets Nod” • The New York Office of Renewable Energy Siting and Transmission approved construction of Hecate Energy and Greenbacker Renewable Energy Company’s 500-MW Cider Solar Farm. Greenbacker acquired the Cider Solar Farm project from Hecate in 2024, becoming its long-term owner and operator. [reNews]
  • “Study Looks At Whether US Farmland Is Better Used For Corn Ethanol Or Solar Power” • A study found that solar panels generate 12 times more energy and 13 times more revenue per acre than corn. Still, without subsidies (which corn gets – ghh), solar projects would have financial losses due to their costs of construction and operation. [Straight Arrow News]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.

February 5 Green Energy News

Headline News:

  • “Spain Deploys 6.46 GW Of New Solar In 2024” • In 2024, Spain installed 6.64 GW of PV systems, a slight increase from 5.59 GW in 2023, according to the grid operator. The country’s total installed PV capacity reached 32 GW by the end of 2024. The authorities also permitted of thirteen storage projects in the year. [pv magazine International]

Valle Solar Power Station (Arvydas Cetyrkovskis, CC-BY-SA 4.0)

  • “How Solar And Sheep Can Support Each Other” • Grazing sheep with solar panels, which helps ensure plant growth doesn’t block solar panels, is the latest example of how solar power can deliver significant financial benefits to farmers. A study out of Western University shows how solar is good for farmland and local ecosystems. [Environment America]
  • “Tesla Sales Plummet In Europe And California” • Tesla stock continues to trade at about a bazillion times earnings, but there are warning signs flashing for those who are thinking about what lies ahead for the company. Bloomberg Hyperdrive reports that Tesla sales plummeted 63% in January 2025 in France. Tesla sales were also down in California. [CleanTechnica]
  • “LA Wildfires Highlight US’ Insurance Crisis As Homeowners Try To Recover Lost Homes” • A growing crisis in US home insurance is in the spotlight as Californians begin the long road to rebuilding from wildfires. The number of residential policies issued under the state’s FAIR plan doubled between 2020 and 2024, but it is bare-bones coverage. [ABC News]
  • “$156 Million Solar Power Grant For Washington In Limbo After Trump Order” • Washington was locked out of about $150 million in federal funding for solar projects focused on low-income communities last week as the Trump administration paused clean energy grants. The funds had been awarded by the EPA last April. [Washington State Standard]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.

Hello,

The February Energy News has been posted. It has links to these articles and ten others:

February 4 Green Energy News

Headline News:

  • “Electricity Prices Across Europe Will Stabilize If 2030 Targets For Renewable Energy Are Met, Study Suggests” • Hitting the current national 2030 quotas for solar and wind energy could reduce the volatility of electricity markets by an average of 20% across 29 European countries, according to a new study from the University of Cambridge. [Tech Xplore]

Wind turbines (Jason Mavrommatis, Unsplash)

  • “They Won’t Tell You These Truths About Nuclear Energy” • Today, there is a battle between scientists on the one hand and the nuclear industry, the politicians it lobbies and gullible media on the other. Currently, scientists are being drowned out. Despite reams of peer-reviewed studies and books showing radiation’s harmful effects, the denialism persists. [The Hill]
  • “Donald Trump Handing The World To China” • The rest of the world is being aggressively push into China’s arms by Donald Trump. As a result of actions in the first ten days of his term, not to mention whatever is to come, many countries are deciding that there’s question who to follow, who to ally with, and who to treat as the world leaders. [CleanTechnica]
  • “Senvion Partners With Wooden Blade Outfit” • Indian turbine maker Senvion has joined forces with Germany’s Voodin Blade Technology to develop and manufacture wooden wind turbine blades starting with Senvion’s 4.2-MW wind turbine platform. The partnership builds on Voodin’s success with prototype wooden blades in Germany in 2024. [reNews]
  • “GridStor Snaps Up Texan BESS” • US energy storage player GridStor acquired a 150-MW, 300-MWh battery storage project in Texas from Balanced Rock Power. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas forecasts a 50% increase in the state’s peak load by 2030. Over 8 GW of battery energy storage has already been deployed on the ERCOT power system. [reNews]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.

February 3 Green Energy News

Headline News:

  • “More Wind Energy Heading To The United States, One Way Or Another” • The US offshore wind industry is facing some serious blowback from the White House, but President Trump is powerless to stop another form of wind energy from arriving on American shores. The cargo shipping industry is rediscovering wind-assisted propulsion. [CleanTechnica]

Neoliner wind-powered cargo ship (Courtesy of Neoline)

  • “EDF Starts Up US Solar-Storage Plant” • EDF Renewables North America and Power Sustainable Energy Infrastructure have achieved commercial operation at a 300-MW solar-storage project in California. The Desert Quartzite project includes a 150-MW, four-hour battery system. It has been delivered to Clean Power Alliance. [reNews]
  • “How Burkina Faso Is Transforming Rural Villages With Solar Power” • Burkina Faso, a landlocked nation in West Africa, is turning its rural villages into solar-powered havens. The solar initiative goes beyond just providing electricity to remote areas; it’s about creating a sustainable future. And it is changing the lives of thousands. [NewsBytes]
  • “Yunlin Reaches Full Power” • Skyborn Renewables and its partners in Yunneng Wind Power have achieved full power at the 640-MW Yunlin offshore wind farm off Taiwan. All 80 8-MW Siemens Gamesa turbines have been installed and are producing electricity. That is contributing to the country’s transition to a sustainable energy future. [reNews]
  • “Tariffs Will Increase US Clean Power Prices” • The Trump regime’s plans to apply tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico will impact progress to reduce the cost of energy from US wind and solar farms. Jason Grumet, CEO of the trade body American Clean Power Association, said energy impacts prices of nearly all consumer goods. [reNews]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.

February 2 Green Energy News

Headline News:

  • “China Hits Clean Energy Goal Six Years Ahead Of Schedule” • A record pace of installations of solar and wind power in recent years helped China achieve its 2030 renewable energy capacity target six years early. In 2020, China set a goal to have at least 1,200 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030. China has already hit that target. [OilPrice.com]

Wind turbines in China (Paolo Dala, CC-BY-SA 2.0)

  • “XPENG Sales Up 238% In January” • XPENG had quite a good 2024, but 2025 is entering with fireworks that make the 2024 results look like sparklers. XPENG’s January 2025 sales were 238% higher than its January sales of the year before. With 30,350 deliveries, this was the third month in a row that XPENG were greater than 30,000 sales. [CleanTechnica]
  • “New Aluminum-Ion Battery Offers Promising Solution For Renewable Energy” • Researchers have developed an innovative aluminum-ion battery that not only offers enhanced safety and recyclability but also delivers exceptional longevity, through well over 10,000 charge-discharge cycles, making it a contender for large-scale energy storage applications. [i-hls.com]
  • “Myanmar Implements Eleven Solar Power Plant Projects” • A total of eleven solar power plant projects are under construction and development across Myanmar, according to the Electricity and Energy Development Commission. They will have a total capacity of 1,026 MW. The government is expediting renewable energy projects. [Global New Light Of Myanmar]
  • “Joseph Stiglitz Asks Whether America Is Witnessing The End Of Progress” • Project Syndicate published an essay by Joseph Stiglitz that began, “Though the United States has long led the world in advancing basic science and technology, it is hard to see how this can continue under President Donald Trump and the country’s ascendant oligarchy.” [CleanTechnica]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.

February 1 Green Energy News

Headline News

  • “First Major Components Arrive For 105-MW Wind Farm” • The first major components for the 105-MW Fasikan wind farm in Sweden have arrived at Sundsvall Harbor. Construction work at the wind farm project has been ongoing since last year. Arise, the construction manager, said the delivery of the components  marked “a key milestone.” [reNews]

Arival of first major components (Arise image)

  • “Study Doubles EU Wind Power Potential” • The report found “substantially higher onshore wind potential” in Europe, as some countries’ potential doubles. France and Spain could generate enough electricity equivalent to the EU’s projected 2050 demand of around 4,000 TWh, the modelling by the bloc’s researchers at the JRC found. [Euractiv]
  • “Nigeria Seeks $1.1 Billion To Power Rural Communities With Renewable Mini-Grids” • Nigeria’s Federal Government is looking for $1.1 billion in funding to build renewable energy mini-grids. This ambitious project aims to bring electricity to underserved communities, a lifeline for many who have been living in darkness. [Okay.ng]
  • “USDA Orders Removal Of Climate Change Mentions From Public Websites” • The US Department of Agriculture directed agency officials to remove content related to climate change from its public websites, say internal emails obtained by ABC News. Web managers are to identify, archive, or excise materials mentioning climate change. [ABC News]
  • “US Offshore Wind Developer Set To Fight Trump” • Atlantic Shores began life as a 50-50 joint venture of EDF and Shell. Now Shell has dropped out. But EDF intends to forge ahead with 2.8 GW of offshore wind energy in New Jersey. And it may have the resources to wage a battle over the legal authority of Trump’s offshore wind shutdown. [CleanTechnica]

For more news, please visit geoharvey – Daily News about Energy and Climate Change.