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Concentration of CO2 in the Atmosphere

EIA Finally Admits U.S. CO2 Emissions to Rise 3% in 2018

SUN DAY CAMPAIGN

EIA FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGES U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS TO RISE 3% IN 2018

 CONTRADICTING REPEATED CLAIMS BY TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS THAT EMISSIONS ARE DECLINING

Contact:         Ken Bossong, 301-270-6477 x.6                          

Washington DC – In the latest issue of its “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has finally acknowledged that “U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 3.0% in 2018.” [1]

This directly contradicts out-of-date and misleading data and news releases EIA had released on multiple occasions earlier this fall suggesting that U.S. CO2 emissions were declining [2] — data that have been cited by Trump Administration officials to justify their energy and environmental policies. [3]

Though not well-publicized, EIA has acknowledged in its monthly STEO reports since the beginning of this year that an increase in CO2 emissions was expected in 2018. However, the level of the anticipated increase had been relatively small.  For the first six months of 2018, EIA forecast, on average, an increase of only 1.3% in 2018 CO2 emissions.  For the four-month period July – October 2018, the average of EIA’s forecasts for the increase in CO2 levels in 2018 rose to 2.1%. Its highest previous forecast for the year – a 2.5% increase – was issued on November 6. [4]

However, it has been obvious for some time that EIA’s earlier predictions were low-balling the likely level of increased CO2 emissions for the current calendar year. Data released  previously by EIA in its “Monthly Energy Review” – but which the agency failed to highlight – clearly showed that the rate at which CO2 emissions were actually rising consistently outpaced the increases EIA forecast throughout the year in its monthly STEOs. In fact, the SUN DAY Campaign warned, on more than one occasion, that CO2 emissions were on track to record a 3% increase – a forecast now belatedly seconded by EIA.

And indeed, the 3% figure may itself prove to be an under-estimate.

U.S. emissions of CO2 from energy consumption have increased during each of the first eight months of 2018 compared to the corresponding months in 2017. For the first two-thirds of 2018, total CO2 emissions from domestic use of petroleum, natural gas, coal, biomass, geothermal energy, and non-biomass waste were 2.9% higher than for the same period in 2017. Those from fossil fuels alone (i.e., coal, petroleum, natural gas) have risen by more than 3.0 percent (i.e., 3.05%) while those from just natural gas zoomed upward by over 12.0% (i.e., 12.03%). For the most recent month reported (i.e., August 2018), CO2 emissions were 3.4% higher than a year earlier. [5]

So it should come as no surprise if the final 2018 figures show an increase in excess of the 3% now predicted by EIA.

Further, if the current growth rate continues, CO2 emissions from energy consumption in 2018 will be back up to, and probably exceed, the level they were at in 2015. Moreover, a 3% increase in domestic CO2 emissions would be greater than the global increase for 2018 recently forecast by the International Energy Agency [6] and the Global Carbon Project, [7] suggesting that the U.S. is not just contributing its “fair share” to the world-wide increase but actually helping to drive it higher.

Whether the trend continues into 2019 is open to debate. In its latest STEO, EIA says it “expects emissions to decline by 1.2% in 2019 because it forecasts that temperatures will return to near normal.”

“But given the Trump Administration’s relentless drive simultaneously to expand fossil fuel development and use and to roll back Obama-era climate policies,” warned Ken Bossong, Executive Director of the SUN DAY Campaign, “it is probably foolish to accept EIA’s expectation of a decline in CO2 emissions next year.”

[1] The latest issue of EIA’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” was officially released on December 11, 2018. See chapter titled “Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions”:  https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/renew_co2.php

[2] On September 25, 2018 EIA issued a report/news release entitled “U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions decreased 0.9% in 2017.” See:

https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/pdf/2017_co2analysis.pdf  ; https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon

On October 29, 2018 EIA issued a second, similar report/news release entitled “Carbon dioxide emissions from the U.S. power sector have declined 28% since 2005.” See:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37392

[3] See, for example:

https://www.ksat.com/weather/acting-epa-chief-credits-trump-admin-for-emissions-decline

https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/17/co2-emissions-plummet-trump

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060102095

[4] Below are links to EIA’s monthly “Short-Term Energy Outlook” reports issued earlier in 2018. The numbers in parenthesis are EIA’s forecasts for the level of increase in CO2 emissions in 2018.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jan18.pdf (1.7%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/feb18.pdf (1.8%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/mar18.pdf  (1.0%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr18.pdf  (0.9%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may18.pdf  (1.4%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun18.pdf  (1.1%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul18.pdf  (1.8%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug18.pdf   (2.0%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/sep18.pdf  (2.3%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct18.pdf  (2.2%)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/nov18.pdf  (2.5%)  [released November 6, 2018]

[5] The latest issue of EIA’s “Monthly Energy Review” was released on November 20, 2018.
For the data cited in this news update, see:
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec12_3.pdf
and
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec12_10.pdf

[6] https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/december/carbon-emissions-from-advanced-economies-set-to-rise-in-2018-for-first-time-in-fi.html

[7] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-emissions-reached-an-all-time-high-in-2018/?text=CO2%20Emissions%20Reached%20an%20All-Time%20High%20in%202018

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